MARGINALIA
To the many unprecedented methods employed in the last seven decades by New Delhi while handling a hot potato like Kashmir is yet another addition – three-phased polling in Anantnag parliamentary constituency. The move is being reasoned as necessitated by the immensely worrisome security situation of South Kashmir.
South Kashmir last went to polls in November-December 2018 for panchayat and municipal bodies in an election infamously called the ‘ghost’ election. That elections were put on hold in 1600 seats, hundreds of seats went uncontested and the identity of candidates remained unknown for the voters till they pressed the button on the EVMs and less than 1 percent polling was witnessed is solely a reflection of the default mechanism in Indian elections that validates such an exercise which by any democratic yardstick will be called only a farce. The low polling pattern was more a result of the increasing disenchantment of the voters with electioneering and also the increasing mass frustration rather than the security situation. No major incident of violence was reported during the elections but the boycott-call for polls turned out to be unprecedently successful.
Is the security situation of South Kashmir really that fragile? According to official estimates, no more than 300 militants are active across the Valley. A large percentage of these are operating in South Kashmir. Ever since, the Anantnag parliamentary constituency fell vacant in 2016, the government has either not been able to hold elections there or did not try to. If security situation is the logic for keeping the seat vacant for three years, it militates against the ability to hold panchayat polls (howsoever farcical in the recent past) and the recent announcement of a three-phased election for one constituency.
While symbolically, a three-phased poll for one constituency which has been vacant for three years is a reflection of the failure of the state and an open admission of the unmanageability of the conflict, the odd-ness of the move goes beyond its symbolic failure.
Unlike the mostly incident free conduct of panchayat polls three months ago, within four days of announcement of elections, two people have been gunned down on two consecutive days. Are these aberrations or do they herald the pattern that is likely to emerge in coming weeks? The December polls and the April 2019 Lok Sabha elections are separated by four months and the Pulwama strike, which could well signal a decisive phase in Kashmir’s militancy. Nonetheless, any of these speculations do not explain for the selective manner in which Lok Sabha polls have been announced while keeping assembly polls on hold or the prolonged delay in holding the parliamentary by-poll for Anantnag
Lok Sabha by-poll for Anantnag was kept in abeyance for three years. In 2017, the polls were post-poned after Srinagar-Budgam by-poll was held. If security grounds necessitate a three-phased poll now, why could these not have happened before when the militancy situation was much less intense? 2018 polls have been the bloodiest ever in the last two decades in the Valley; more than 500 people have been killed, including civilians, security forces and militants. Militancy is receiving an upshot due to excessive human rights violations and spiraling anger and frustration of the public, also inspiring unarmed villagers including women to reach encounter sites to save the militants. The absence of fear and not the fear of gun dictated the voting patterns in panchayat and municipal polls.
The recent panchayat and local bodies polls demonstrate the farcical character of holding polls in the existing atmosphere where polling was almost a naught. A necessary component of elections is ‘free and fair’ polls, and by that virtue the successful completion of the process is meaningless without the participation of the public. The significance of such an election needs to be weighed not only in terms of ability to conduct the exercise but also the level of participation. Kashmir’s phenomenon of abysmally low polling in fact necessitates reforms within the electoral system to put a bar on minimum percentage of overall votes polled.
While it may go down in record as a legitimate one, such an election makes a mockery of democracy. The decision to hold elections in Kashmir is not necessitated by moral or ethical questions but political expediency. The expected polling percentage, the convenient withholding of assembly elections which best meet the aspirations of the public and a three-phased election for Anantnag stem from a design that does not appear to be noble.
There are two possibilities in the Anantnag elections. Either polling will follow the panchayat election pattern or it will marginally improve in view of the participation of two key regional parties, National Conference and PDP, who under normal circumstances would be the main contenders with Congress as the third runner up. If it is the former, the BJP would gain – as in the ghost panchayat elections – that gave the saffron party the advantage of absence of opposition, candidates and absence of voters. If it is the latter, it would give BJP the handle to brag about an improved situation, a selling point for elections in rest of the country in the aftermath of the Pulwama attack. At the same time, the saffron flag waving in the constituency cannot altogether be ruled out. South Kashmir has been the bastion of PDP in the last two decades and NC has its traditional cadres intact, though weakened. The cumulative impact of the dwindling graph of PDP, the disenchantment with electoral politics and low polling, even with a marginal improvement since December last, could give the ruling party an advantage which hopes to use a three-phased period for using its managerial skills.
Kashmir is also not unfamiliar with the brazen use of the security forces in the elections between 1996 and 2002 for forcing people into election booths and influencing the voting trends. The mood since 1996, however, has undergone a major change and is far more rebellious in nature even for this kind of an imposed election to work effectively. The polling percentage and the outcome of the election will eventually become insignificant in the face of the rebellious mood that has the potential of pushing Kashmir into a more dangerous phase of the conflict. The election could only become a catalyst to that end.
source: Kashmir Times